Bring Out Your Dead
Monty Python goes to Germany
There’s a classic scene in Monty Python & the Holy Grail. You can catch it here…
It’s set during a plague in Europe and a man is going around with a cart, collecting the dead.
Another man carries an old man out to the cart, pronouncing him dead. But the old man is clearly still alive and protests as much.
That is, of course, until he is clubbed to death by the collector of dead bodies.
Think of Germany as the old man and the ECB as the collector of dead bodies.
Germany is still alive and, it seems, doing reasonably well considering the monetary plague being inflicted on Europe.
Here are just two recent data points.
German Industrial Orders
Year-on-year German industrial orders increased by 6.8% in June from 4.7% in May. The growth rate stood at 0.3% in June last year.
Here’s how this looks through the lens of our leading monetary indicators:
No sign of Germany being “carted out” - indeed there’s more upside in store.
German Industrial Production
The yearly growth rate of German industrial production edged up to 0% in June from -0.1% in May. In June last year it stood at -1.6%.
Once again we take our lead from the money supply drivers:
Same picture. Nothing too exciting, but the trend is there.
Of course it will only take another clubbing or two from the ECB to change the monetary picture and condemn Germany (and the rest of Europe) to the cart…
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