Did You Catch These Three Releases?
More data...more clarity?
Three interesting data releases…
ISM Services PMI
Here we go again.
Although the headline number declined to 54.5 in June from 54 in May, the trend remains firmly on track, which is for the continuation of a modest improvement in the US services sector - one which may even accelerate a bit towards year end.
This is all revealed by our proprietary leading monetary indicator which allows us to look ahead by more than a year.
German Manufacturing Orders
Remember how the German economy is meant to be in crisis? Everything we read tells us so.
But is it?
Year-on-year German Manufacturing Orders increased by 6.3% in May from 2.1% in April. It stood at 4.5% in May last year.
What do our leading indicators say?
It’s heavy going but the trend is pretty clear: upward.
Eurozone PPI
The Eurozone’s producer price index (PPI) yearly growth rate rose to 5.9% in May from 5% in April.
This comes as no surprise - either to us or to the mainstream economic forecasting community.
But here’s the thing. As we look ahead our leading monetary indicators are suggesting that we are getting closer to a peak in European input price inflation.
As we look out towards year end the heat may well be coming out of wholesale growth in the EU.
This may coincide with the expected trajectory of oil price momentum, which we showed earlier as being likely to decline over a similar timeframe.
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