German Industry - How Bad?
Is the trend still your friend?
Over a year ago we remarked on the likely trajectory of the German industrial economy.
We later repeated the view that although values of certain growth variables at the time were negative there was an improving trend coming.
Were we right?
You be the judge.
Yearly German industrial production growth, while still negative, has ticked up to -0.5% in April from -3.5% in March.
This improving trend is in line with what we said then and remains in line with the monetary fundamentals as expressed in our composite money supply leading indicator for German industrial production.
It’s a slow grind and there will be choppy periods as the data oscillate about the trend but, once again, this shows how it pays to follow the money…
DID YOU CATCH HOW WE TRANSLATE OUR MONETARY FORECASTS INTO SPECIFIC PORTFOLIO ALLOCATIONS?
A PRIME EXAMPLE IS OUR SYSTEMATIC USE OF LIQUIDITY TO ALLOCATE CAPITAL BETWEEN VARIOUS COUNTRIES’ STOCK MARKETS.
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