US PMI Shock
Well, not really...
Another month, another US ISM Manufacturing PMI number.
The index increased to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June – the 7th month above the 50 figure.
In July last year it stood at 48.4.
Here is our now-familiar PMI chart with the also now-familiar leading indicator: the AMS (Adjusted Money Supply) Momentum Index lagged 12 months.
Still trackin’, still truckin’.
To us there appears to be more upside but we’re getting closer to “the pause that refreshes” which looks like arriving towards the end of the year or early in 2027 - time lags are a very inexact science.
As a reminder, these movements are all being driven by fluctuations in the money supply growth rate, courtesy of the central and commercial banks. If you thank them for the upswing then you’ll be equally grateful for the downleg when it inevitably comes.
In a fiat money world you don’t get one without the other.
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